Pollen content study of the lower atmosphere in León (Spain) by use of a tethered balloon

This study was undertaken in order to understand thebehaviour of airborne pollen grains, namely therelationship between their concentrations andconcomitant meteorological parameters, at differentaltitudes (ground level, 200, 400 and 600 m) of thelower atmosphere and its daily variations over onesite (the experimental farm of the University ofLeón). The experimental design involved a tetheredballoon (2.25 m³), an ADAS remote meteorologicalstation and an original radio controlled three headedpollen and spore sampler (called GABIS) using theRotorod design. Each head sampled a differentaltitude, while two control samples were taken atground level. Twenty-one takeoffs could be realized inthe 5 weeks period between end of May and end of June1997. Sampling was done early in the morning and sampling time at each altitudewas of 15 minutes. Results show that 45 differenttypes of pollen grains could be collected at this timeof the year and that significant variations could beobserved in the behaviour of the pollen cloud on a dayto day basis, probably because of differentmeteorological situations. Contrary to what isgenerally believed, pollen was in most cases moreabundant at higher altitude – on average by 30% ascompared to ground level – making evident anaerobiological layer of transport at about 500 m aboveground. This was especially the case for trees (Quercus and Castanea). The atmosphere MixingRatio was the most explicative factor at 200 m, whiletemperature dominated significance analysis at both400 and 600 m.     

Likelihood analysis of ongoing gene flow and historical association

Abstract.— We develop a Monte Carlo-based likelihood method for estimating migration rates and population divergence times from data at unlinked loci at which mutation rates are sufficiently low that, in the recent past, the effects of mutation can be ignored. The method is applicable to restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) sampled from a subdivided population. The method produces joint maximum-likelihood estimates of the migration rate and the time of population divergence, both scaled by population size, and provides a framework in which to test either for no ongoing gene flow or for population divergence in the distant past. We show the method performs well and provides reasonably accurate estimates of parameters even when the assumptions under which those estimates are obtained are not completely satisfied. Furthermore, we show that, provided that the number of polymorphic loci is sufficiently large, there is some power to distinguish between ongoing gene flow and historical association as causes of genetic similarity between pairs of populations.     

The evolution of genetic canalization under fluctuating selection

Abstract.— If the direction of selection changes from generation to generation, the ability to respond to selection is maladaptive: the response to selection in one generation leads to reduced fitness in the next. Because the response is determined by the amount of genetic variance expressed at the phenotypic level, rapidly fluctuating selection should favor modifier genes that reduce the phenotypic effect of alleles segregating at structural loci underlying the trait. Such reduction in phenotypic expression of genetic variation has been named "genetic canalization." I support this argument with a series of two- and multilocus models with alternating linear selection and Gaussian selection with fluctuating optimum. A canalizing modifier gene affects the fitness of its carriers in three ways: (1) it reduces the phenotypic consequences of genetic response to previous selection; (2) it reduces the genetic response to selection, which is manifested as linkage disequilibrium between the modifier and structural loci; and (3) it reduces the phenotypic variance. The first two effects reduce fitness under directional selection sustained for several generations, but improve fitness when the direction of selection has just been reversed. The net effect tends to favor a canalizing modifier under rapidly fluctuating selection regimes (period of eight generations or less). The third effect improves fitness of the modifier allele if the fitness function is convex and reduces it if the function is concave. Under fluctuating Gaussian selection, the population is more likely to experience the concave portion of the fitness function when selection is stronger. Therefore, only weak to moderately strong fluctuating Gaussian selection favors genetic canalization. This paper considerably broadens the conditions that favor genetic canalization, which so far has only been postulated to evolve under long-term stabilizing selection.     

The temperature-dependent duration of development and parasitism of three cereal aphid parasitoids, Aphidius ervi, A. rhopalosiphi, and Praon volucre

Temperature dependencies were established for the egg-to-mummy and mummy-to-adult phases, for mummy mortality, and for parasitism of Aphidius ervi Haliday, Aphidius rhopalosiphi De Stefani-Perez, and Praon volucre (Haliday) (Hymenoptera, Aphidiidae), three parasitoids of Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) (Homoptera, Aphididae), at 8°C, 12°C, 16°C, 20°C, and 25°C on winter wheat (cv. Haven). A physiological model described temperature-dependent development over the full temperature range, whereas a linear model was fitted for data above 8°C and used to estimate the lower temperature thresholds and day-degrees (° D) required for development. The thresholds for A. ervi were 2.2°C for egg-mummy development and 6.6°C for mummy-adult development, those for A. rhopalosiphi were 4.5°C and 7.2°C, and those for P. volucre were 3.8°C and 5.5°C. The time to develop into mummies and adults differed significantly between the three species: A. ervi development into mummies required an average of 159 ° D, while development into adults took an average of 73 ° D. The corresponding average times required for A. rhopalosiphi and P. volucre to develop mummies were 124° D and 126° D, while their development into adults required an average of 70° D and 150° D, respectively. Mummy mortality was 25–35% at 8°C and less at the higher temperatures tested, but began to increase again at 25°C, showing a quadratic relationship between mortality and temperature. Parasitization was very low or, in the case of P. volucre, absent up to 12°C and thereafter increased with increasing temperature. The relationship between parasitization, recorded as percent aphids mummified, and temperature was linear at the temperatures tested and depended on species. A. ervisuperparasitized 11.1% aphids at 20°C and 16.6% aphids at 25°C, whereas superparasitism was low in A. rhopalosiphi and absent in P. volucre. From 16°C to 25°C the P. volucre sex ratio increased. For A. ervi and A. rhopalosiphi there was no trend with temperature, but at 20°C and 25°C it was close to even. Field data for 1996 and 1997 allowed for a comparison of actual and expected emergence of overwintering mummies. In both years, parasitoids were predicted to have emerged from overwintering mummies well in advance of the onset of aphid infestation, and more than a month earlier than the first parasitized aphids were found in winter wheat. Observations from trap plants in other crops supported the predictions of the models. Other factors that can affect biological control by cereal aphid parasitoids are discussed.     

Estimating phylogenetic inertia in Tithonia (Asteraceae): a comparative approach

Abstract.— Phylogenetic inertia is a difficult issue in evolutionary biology because we have yet to reach a consensus about how to measure it. In this study a comparative approach is used to evaluate phylogenetic inertia in 14 demographic and morphological characters in 10 species and one subspecies of the genus Tithonia (Asteraceae). Three different methods, autocorrelational analysis, phylogenetic correlograms, and ancestor-state reconstruction, were used to evaluate phylogenetic inertia in these traits. Results were highly dependent on the method applied. Autoregression and phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) methods found more inertia in morphological traits. In contrast, phylogenetic correlograms and ancestor-state reconstruction suggest that morphological characters exhibit less phylogenetic inertia than demographic ones. The differences between results are discussed and methods are compared in an effort to understand phylogenetic inertia more thoroughly.     

Confidence intervals for the mean of diagnostic test charge data containing zeros

In this paper, we consider the problem of interval estimation for the mean of diagnostic test charges. Diagnostic test charge data may contain zero values, and the nonzero values can often be modeled by a log-normal distribution. Under such a model, we propose three different interval estimation procedures: a percentile-t bootstrap interval based on sufficient statistics and two likelihood-based confidence intervals. For theoretical properties, we show that the two likelihood-based one-sided confidence intervals are only first-order accurate and that the bootstrap-based one-sided confidence interval is second-order accurate. For two-sided confidence intervals, all three proposed methods are second-order accurate. A simulation study in finite-sample sizes suggests all three proposed intervals outperform a widely used minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE)-based interval except for the case of one-sided lower end-point intervals when the skewness is very small. Among the proposed one-sided intervals, the bootstrap interval has the best coverage accuracy. For the two-sided intervals, when the sample size is small, the bootstrap method still yields the best coverage accuracy unless the skewness is very small, in which case the bias-corrected ML method has the best accuracy. When the sample size is large, all three proposed intervals have similar coverage accuracy. Finally, we analyze with the proposed methods one real example assessing diagnostic test charges among older adults with depression.     

On power and sample size calculations for likelihood ratio tests in generalized linear models

A direct extension of the approach described in Self, Mauritsen, and Ohara (1992, Biometrics 48, 31-39) for power and sample size calculations in generalized linear models is presented. The major feature of the proposed approach is that the modification accommodates both a finite and an infinite number of covariate configurations. Furthermore, for the approximation of the noncentrality of the noncentral chi-square distribution for the likelihood ratio statistic, a simplification is provided that not only reduces substantial computation but also maintains the accuracy. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the accuracy for various model configurations and covariate distributions.     

A linear mixed-effects model for multivariate censored data

We apply a linear mixed-effects model to multivariate failure time data. Computation of the regression parameters involves the Buckley-James method in an iterated Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm, wherein the Monte Carlo E-step is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. From simulation studies, this approach compares favorably with the marginal independence approach, especially when there is a strong within-cluster correlation.     

Weighted p-value adjustments for animal carcinogenicity trend test

A typical animal carcinogenicity experiment routinely analyzes approximately 10-30 tumor sites. Comparisons of tumor responses between dosed and control groups and dose-related trend tests are often evaluated for each individual tumor site/type separately. p-Value adjustment approaches have been proposed for controlling the overall Type I error rate or familywise error rate (FWE). However, these adjustments often result in reducing the power to detect a dose effect. This paper proposes using weighted adjustments by assuming that each tumor can be classified as either class A or class B based on prior considerations. The tumors in class A, which are considered as more critical endpoints, are given less adjustment. Two weighted methods of adjustments are presented, the weighted p adjustment and weighted alpha adjustment. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that both weighted adjustments control the FWE well. Furthermore, the power increases if a treatment-dependent tumor is analyzed as in class A tumors and the power decreases if it is analyzed as in class B tumors. A data set from a National Toxicology Program (NTP) 2-year animal carcinogenicity experiment with 13 tumor types/sites observed in male mice was analyzed using the proposed methods. The modified poly-3 test was used to test for increased carcinogenicity since it has been adopted by the NTP as a standard test for a dose-related trend. The unweighted adjustment analysis concluded that there was no statistically significant dose-related trend. Using the Food and Drug Administration classification scheme for the weighted adjustment analyses, two rare tumors (with background rates of 1% or less) were analyzed as class A tumors and 11 common tumors (with background rates higher than 1%) as class B. Both weighted analyses showed a significant dose-related trend for one rare tumor.     

Aberrant chloroplasts in transgenic rice plants expressing a high level of maize NADP-dependent malic enzyme

 NADP-dependent malic enzyme (NADP-ME) is a major decarboxylating enzyme in NADP-ME-type C₄ species such as maize and Flaveria. In this study, chloroplastic NADP-ME was transferred to rice (Oryza sativa L.) using a chimeric gene composed of maize NADP-ME cDNA under the control of rice light-harvesting chlorophyll-a/b-binding protein (Cab) promoter. There was a 20- to 70-fold increase in the NADP-ME activity in leaves of transgenic rice compared to that in wild-type rice plants. Immunocytochemical studies by electron microscopy showed that maize NADP-ME was mostly localized in chloroplasts in transgenic rice plants, and that the chloroplasts were agranal without thylakoid stacking. Chlorophyll content and photosystem II activity were inversely correlated with the level of NADP-ME activity. These results suggest that aberrant chloroplasts in transgenic plants may be caused by excessive NADP-ME activity. Based on these results and the known fact that only bundle sheath cells of NADP-ME species, among all three C₄ subgroups, have agranal chloroplasts, we postulate that a high level of chloroplastic NADP-ME activity could strongly affect the development of chloroplasts. Received: 27 January 1999 / Accepted: 20 January 2000